Dawlish Discussion

On a different thread (the one concerning Brexit and farming) @MajorP posted a comment concerning Brexit and the car industry/costs.

I responded with a comment about car sales jobs at Marsh Barton.

MajorP: “there is talk about imposing a tarriff on imported cars when we leave. As Exeter is the biggest (Marsh Barton) in Europe where you can buy any make of car of your choice. what would happen if many of those car sales pulled the plug?”

Lynne: “@Majop  - why not start a new thread on the subject of how Brexit (whatever form it ends up taking) might impact on the UK car manufacturing/sales and allied industries and those employed in them.

We may not have a lot of car manufacturing in the south west but I for one know people who live in Dawlish who work in car sales at Marsh Barton.”        

Lynne, Brexit is brexit and it covers many, many, many, many different parts. If a new thread was to be started to cover each and every one seperately, I am pretty sure we would run out of space and time to read it all.

As with most things, until it affects someone, no one is bothered.

When we voted to exit, did anyone know what they were voting for? I doubt it very much because no one knows what is going to happen, how it is going to happen and why it should happen, now. It appears to me that everything is one big guessing game and until it happens, that is when judgements can and will be made.

The reason I brought cars into the forum was because as I have said, Exeter is the biggest new car dump of any make of car in Europe, and if there is anything that would affect that dump, then how I wonder would it impact on Exeter. I don't know how motor manufacturing/sales helps with the balance of payments, but I guess that should anything go wrong in that sector, then what would that hold in store for all of us?

I only see today that Archy from Canterbury is trying to blame the brexit vote on the finacial crash of 2008. Well that might be, but that is only his opinion.

Brexit is brexit - yes, and cheese is cheese. 

"When we voted to exit, did anyone know what they were voting for? I doubt it very much because no one knows what is going to happen, how it is going to happen and why it should happen, now. It appears to me that everything is one big guessing game and until it happens, that is when judgements can and will be made."

But it will be too late then!

I guess some thought it would control immigration, and that we would have more money for the NHS, and that we would have control over our laws and other things besides.

What I suspect is the case is that for many, many, many, people the economic consequences of voting to exit did not register. And things concerning the economy are only now coming to light. Like the impact on the car and car sales industry and farming (and therefore peoples' livelihoods and the UK's food supply!).  And goodness knows how many other things.

But I agree with you that it isn't until people are affected by things that they take any notice.   

Lynne the UK is the biggest export destination for German cars, 1 in 3 cars sold is German do you honestly believe the likes of the VW group are prepared to lose the UK market. And i knew what i was voting for and i also figured it wouldn't be easy especialy when 10% of the EU budget is paid for by UK taxpayers no wonder they are playing hard ball, they also have loads to lose.

The UK market can only buy cars, from whatever country, if it has the economy that enables its citizens to do so.

Well my glass is always half full Lynee and when we are out of the EU this country will thrive and i believe without us those over the channel will have some serious problems.

Just a thought. Many years ago when I was at Bisley the main rifle shooting centre of gb, I was ready to part with my hard earned cash to buy a brand new anschutz rifle (German). I do not remember what I was going to pay exactly (but it was in the thousands), but I do remember someone dragging me back from the counter, and telling me that I could get it cheaper if I went to Germany and bought one and after paying expences, ( travelling etc) I would still have money in my pocket.

Now I understand that the same sort of thing could be happening with many items that we purchase here but we could buy a lot cheaper if we bought it at source.

I have done no research on the car market, but we could be pleasantly surprised.

Should others find that it is cheaper to buy what they need, at source, it could be the start of a new travel trend.

It cannot be cheap for VW to ship cars here, store them etc and then not make a profit. so without that cost, what might the same car cost in Germany?

majorp very true i recently saw in a local shop a beautiful black swan made from marble cost about £70 after a little research i found it the exact same one on alibaba for £12 with free delivery from China.  I buy loads of gear from China delivery 2 to 3 weeks but the savings are awesome.  At the end of the day the member states left have loads to lose as well our budget contribution there fishing fleets have huge quotas that they will lose and if EU cars rise in price redundancy's in Germany France etc etc then a dip in economic output it could be doom and gloom on the continent as well.  And maybe if we make a success of our new found freedom it could be the match that lights the touch paper and other states will follow our example.

VW golf 1.2 TSI hatch here £17,175 in Germany £12,461    Skoda Spaceback 1.2 TSI here £14,500 in Germany £10,700

The cost of the same VW golf in the USA £15,512 thats £1663 cheaper what does that tell us well our so called EU partners are ripping us of.

But of course maybe it's the dealerships ripping us of anybody know what the margins are on new cars or the factory gate price.

2018 European Union VAT rates

The EU sets the broad VAT rules through European VAT Directives, and has set the minimum standard VAT rate at 15%.  The 28 member states are otherwise free to set their standard VAT rates.  The EU also permits a maximum of two reduced rates, the lowest of which must be 5% or above.

From: https://www.vatlive.com/vat-rates/european-vat-rates/

I wonder how much new cars from China cost? 

Whatever happened to Buy British?

We dont make anything.

Car industry warns over dangers posed by Brexit and diesel threats

www.telegraph.co.uk/.../2017/.../car-industry-warns-dangers-posed-brexit-diesel-threa...

28 Nov 2017 - Slow progress agreeing a Brexit deal risks undermining the competitiveness of the UK car industry, the Government has been warned. Tony Walker, president of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders ,used his speech at the trade body's annual dinner to call for the Government to speed up ...

Brexit threat to car finance - BBC News

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41935554

10 Nov 2017 - "Outside the EU and the EEA, FCE as a UK-regulated bank will lose access to the passporting regime as currently designed. "FCE's sole purpose is to finance the sale of Ford motor vehicles and Ford cannot afford any kind of disruption to FCE's continuity of financing." The car industry has already been ...

Brexit threatens UK auto industry competitiveness warns SMMT boss ...

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/smmt-brexit-threat/

29 Nov 2017 - “I am very proud that today our UK automotive industry competes globally on quality, productivity, flexibility and cost,” he said. “But we are not complacent. Competitiveness comes hard-won. It can be easily lost. A hard Brexit would undermine all that we have collectively achieved. It is a realthreat – a hurdle ...

UK car industry facing an 'utterly demoralising' Brexit | Business | The ...

https://www.theguardian.com/.../uk-car-industry-facing-an-utterly-demoralising-brexit

4 Aug 2017 - Leaving the EU will reverse the progress made in past decades and may wipe out small suppliers, says Britain's motor society.

UK car production slides as Brexit fears erode confidence among ...

www.independent.co.uk › News › Business › Business News

30 Jan 2018 - The SMMT warned once again about the “serious threat” Brexit poses to the UK auto industry, which has been a success story since the 1980s, attracting substantial inward investment from some of the world's most successful companies. The SMMT stated that the current proposed transition period for ...

UK car manufacturing slumps 14% in June and hard Brexit could ...

www.independent.co.uk › News › Business › Business News

27 Jul 2017 - In a stark warning about the consequences of Brexit to British industry, the Society of Motor manufacturers and Traders say that a hard Brexit would mean a 10 per cent to vehicle production in the UK, which is already weakening because of the slowdown in the domestic economy. An Independent analysis ...

Brexit “biggest threat in a generation” to UK car makers, industry ...

https://www.unitebrexitcheck.org/brexit-biggest-threat-in-a-generation-to-uk-car-mak...

Brexit “biggest threat in a generation” to UK car makers, industry leaders warn. Brexit is the “biggestthreat in a generation” to the UK's booming car industry, auto manufacturers have warned. Car makers said yesterday that the £72bn-a-year industry, which exports more than half of the 1.7m cars it produces each year to ...

Why hard Brexit could cost UK car industry £4.5 billion in tariffs annually

theconversation.com/why-hard-brexit-could-cost-uk-car-industry-4-5-billion-in-tariff...

13 Feb 2018 - Britain's car industry has been the exception to the rule that UK manufacturing has declined precipitously since the 1980s. More than 1.7m vehicles roll off its production lines annually, it employs 814,000 workers and boasts an annual turnover of £71.6 billion. Nissan in Sunderland is arguably the most ...

Car industry faces £4.5bn bill without Brexit deal - Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/e00fbc9e-d438-11e7-a303-9060cb1e5f44

28 Nov 2017 - Britain's car industry faces a £4.5bn bill if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal, according to latest estimates from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The trade body said the costs would come from paying “devastating” tariffs on cars and parts, such as engines that are made in the UK and ...

most of the F1 cars are british made--- so I understand, and

Made in Britain

• MINI – MINI, MINI Clubman and MINI Countryman, in Cowley, Oxford
• Honda – Civic and CR-V in Swindon
• Toyota – Auris, Auris hybrid and Avensis in Burnaston, Derbyshire
• Nissan – Juke, Qashqai, Note and Leaf and Infiniti Q30 in Sunderland, Tyne and Wear
• Lotus – Elise, Evora and Exige in Norfolk
• Aston Martin – DB9, Vantage, Rapide, Vanquish, and DB11 in Gaydon, Warwickshire
• Bentley Motors – Continental, Flying Spur and Mulsanne in Crewe, Cheshire
• Rolls Royce – Ghost and Wraith in Goodwood, West Sussex
• Jaguar – F-Pace and XE in Solihull, and F-type, XJ, XF and XE in Castle Bromwich, Birmingham
• Land Rover – Discovery Sport and Range Rover Evoque in Halewood, Merseyside, and Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Land Rover Defender in Solihull, West Midlands
• Vauxhall – Astra at Ellesmere Port and Vivaro van in Luton

Other niche, small volume manufacturers include Westfield, Bristol, Ariel and Noble. 

Ford stopped building cars in the UK in 2002 and vans (Transits) in July 2013 but continues to manufacture engines in Bridgend and Dagenham and transmissions in Halewood.

And you can buy all of those cars and more at Marsh Barton.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-car-industry-no-deal-thousands-jobs-risk-millions-investment-business-committee-warn-a8233506.html

"a no-deal Brexit would “undoubtedly be hugely damaging” for the UK car industry, which directly or indirectly employs 900,000 people."

"If the UK does not secure a deal, cars imported into the EU would be subject to a 10 per cent tariff which could make the mass production of cars in this country unviable. Production would be forced to move to within the EU because the sector is highly competitive with low profit margins, the report said. "

There is talk and there is doing. If, as is stated in other places, there is a shortage of skilled work forces in most countries, and the car industry employ's many of those skilled workers. There would need to be a lot of planning to move a factory from one country to another.

Does anyone remember the so called "brain drain" rubbish that was designed to scare some people. Talk about moving car factories could be just that  ----talk.

majorp as you have already stated no one knows the outcome and all this scare mongering is designed to force another referendum but what the remain camp dont get is the decision has been made and the people voted to leave.  If and we dont know of course if all these things do happen then the BUY MADE IN GREAT BRITAIN will kick in and folk will have to buy cars made here in the UK.

Provided we still have a car manufacturing industry. 

Toyota to invest £240 million in there Derbyshire plant as they will be building the new Auris Hatch there.

But it comes with a warning: continued free and frictionless trade with Europe will be vital for future success.

In other words, it is firmly committed to the UK for now. But that commitment is not open-ended or unconditional.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43226097

Well my glass is still well and truly half full.

Is the fact that British industry is so opposed to Brexit is because the Billions of pounds we the tax payer has to pay to Europe 

for tariff free access is to subsidizing their business.

Whilst on here the EU are using the Irsh border as a means of halting Brexit. The next thing will be Gibraltar.

The EU cannot stop Brexit.

If there is no deal (about trade, the Irish border, Gibraltar or anything and everything else) then Britain will crash out. 

It will be a no deal, hard Brexit.

I wonder then how the car industry (and other trading industries) will manage if they have to pay tariffs and suffer delays with importing/exporting goods. 

Some reading for those wishing to know more about the impact of Brexit on the automotive industry.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/379/37902.htm  

There is likely to be no deal only because the EU dont want a deal what they want is for the UK to stay in, i believe they need us more than we need them. Just consider Lynne the damage we could do to the car industry in Europe it works both ways and they know it.

If that were the case, then the EU would be desperate to do a deal with us. You lot don’t seem to understand that there’s no going back on Brexit; the EU don’t want us to stay because we cannot stay. The fact that we’ve got Tories that are unable to negotiate a deal is where the problem lies 

And the fact that we've got Tories in the cabinet, let alone Tory backbenchers, who are unable to agree amongst themselves what it is that we wish to achieve doesn't help! 

How can you negotiate (which means give and take) if you don't know what it is that you want to achieve?

“No, you can’t have your cake and eat it too” is the tart response from the rejected EU. “Compromise is the name of this game and because you are leaving things can’t be the same. To negotiate means give and take. Do you know what you want yet? Or are your plans still half-baked?”  

So as both sides sit down to thrash out a deal let’s hope that the outcome is one that appeals.  But with the Cabinet split on what goals we should seek, Mrs May, our Prime Minister, looks continuingly weak.  Though with time ticking on so she’ll soon need to decide, which one of those Brexit horses to ride. But whatever she does she’s bound to displease –  as twas such a close run twixt Remain and Vote Leave

I understand fully, why would we want to go back, in the long run it will be the best thing that ever happened to this country roll on March 29th 2019.

Brexit means Brexit ..anyone who loves EU go live there!

I know of some Leave voters who are looking to retire to Spain before we leave. Go figure.

Sadiq Khan is always talking Great Britain down, Is probably the worse mayor in the country 

Best to keep other opinions about him off this site (freedom of speech and all that).

Lynne I do hope beyond hope the E.U cannot stop Brexit but those in charge will do anthing and i mean anything to scupper negotiations

because too much money involved.

Well if by 'too much money is involved' you have in mind just how much money the UK will be poorer by its leaving the EU then those in charge may have a point!     

The reference to "too much money" is about how much poorer the EU will be when one of its largest net contributors is no longer paying into the coffers, but instead of cutting its cloth to suit its new means Juncker just plans to make the remaining members pay more.  How very EU.

So they will be poorer and we will be poorer.

That looks like lose/lose to me.

They will soon come begging.

Could you elaborate on that assertion Leatash?,      

Interesting comments from the CEO of VW and the CEO of BMW  on the news. They were asked if Trumps proposals would damage there car sales they both said nothing they were then asked if brexit would damage car sales they both answered "we expect nothing to change" what do they know that we dont. And in answer to your question Lynne they have more to lose than us and yes a hard brexit could make life tough but the UK car market is one the Europeans cant afford to lose. 

Have you read this?

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/379/37902.htm

see in particular  para 14 concerning a no deal ie hard Brexit

Whilst a “no deal” scenario would certainly be damaging to the automotive sector in many EU countries, especially Germany, the impact on the UK automotive sector would be far greater than that on each of the remaining EU Member States. We recommend that the Government should not contemplate this outcome in its approach to negotiations and that it should prioritise securing a customs arrangement which removes the risks of tariffs being imposed on vehicles produced in the UK.

It's all pye in the sky because nobody knows and i would go as far as the goverment doesn't even know what the outcome will be lets just wait and see. Well Lynne have to leave it there i am off on my travels again.

Pie in the sky.

What an apt description of all the promises made by Leave campaigners!